MANIFOLD
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date
109
Ṁ2.5kṀ31k
Aug 7
1.1%
Before March 2026
5%
Before April 2026
11%
Before May 2026
17%
Before June 2026
31%
Before July 2026
41%
Before August 2026
46%
Before September 2026
45%
Before October 2026
63%
Before November 2026
62%
Before December 2026
78%
Before 2027
84%
Before February 2027
87%
Before March 2027
78%
Before April 2027
90%
Before May 2027
91%
Before June 2027
91%
Before July 2027
91%
Before August 2027
92%
Before September 2027
93%
Before October 2027

Minor changes to the name, such as 'GPT 6.1', or other names for a model generally expected to be called GPT 6, will count for the purpose of this market.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

GPT 5.4 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date (this market)

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Llama 5 (Meta) release date

V4 (DeepSeek) release date

R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date

GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date

M3 (Minimax) release date

Mistral 4 (Mistral) release date

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Veo 4 (Google) release date

New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date

'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date

Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date

Market context
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boughtṀ20 YES

@256 what's up

I think their router model means gpt-5 is much more modular now. If there's a new paradigm that emerges suddenly over the next 18 months they can just switch in a new module for that to keep gpt-5 going

bought Ṁ3 YES

my instinct is it won't take >2 years this time, but I thought this after GPT-4 too.

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