Resolution criteria
OpenAI announced GPT-5 on August 7, 2025, and GPT-5.2 was released in early December 2025. This market resolves YES if OpenAI announces a new GPT-5-level model (or higher) before July 1, 2026. A "GPT-5-level model" means a model that OpenAI officially designates as part of the GPT-5 family or a successor generation (GPT-6 or beyond). Announcements via official OpenAI channels (website, blog, social media, press releases) count as valid announcements. The market resolves NO if no such announcement occurs by the deadline.
Background
OpenAI moved the release of GPT-5.2 forward from its original late-December timeline in response to competitive pressure from Google's Gemini 3. Google's Gemini 3 performed better than GPT-5.1 in reasoning, coding, and general intelligence tests, prompting OpenAI to accelerate its release schedule. The competitive dynamics between OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic have intensified, with multiple frontier models released in rapid succession throughout 2025.
Considerations
OpenAI has demonstrated a pattern of frequent model updates within the GPT-5 family. GPT-5.1 was announced on November 12, 2025, just three months after GPT-5 debuted in August 2025, and GPT-5.2 followed within weeks. This cadence suggests OpenAI may continue releasing incremental updates to maintain competitive positioning. However, the distinction between minor updates (5.2, 5.3) and major new models (GPT-6) will be crucial for resolution.
1,000When was the last time OpenAI went more than 6 months without a new release?
really only if don’t count the o series of models as the successor to 4o, which seems unlikely given they’ve unified them
If we think 40% chance of 5.3 (non-codex) by the end of the month
it’s almost certainly out by April and near guaranteed by June,
Only way it resolves no is if they scrap it cause it’s not safe or something and even then I think there’s a 30% chance they’d have 5.5 ready by then. It’s too competitive to go more than 3 months without a new release