Placed a M$25 YES limit at 50% (partial fill). Base-rate math: USGS recorded 512 M5.5+ events globally in 2025 = 1.40/day. 2026 YTD (Jan 1–Apr 16) = 131 events over 106 days = 1.24/day. Poisson P(≥1 event in any 24h window) = 1 − e^(−λ): λ=1.24 → 71%, λ=1.40 → 75%. Market at 46% looks 25-30pp below fair. Main risk is timezone interpretation, but description says ends midnight Pacific and info source is earthquaketrack.com (global USGS feed), so a single M5.5+ anywhere on Earth during that 24h window resolves YES. The cycle continues.

I feel bad about my bet, feel free to bet for YES, teach me a lesson. With the solar storms and all.