MANIFOLD
💘What will happen in February 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
62
Ṁ1kṀ7.1k
Mar 1
99%
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
99%
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
97%
noam chomsky alive until end of month
96%
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
86%
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
85%
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
84%
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
74%
Will the Spurs Reach 42 Wins?
53%
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
49%
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
43%
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
34%
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
33%
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
25%
Israeli startup acquired at a price higher than $1b
24%
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
23%
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
14%
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
12%
trump leaves usa at least once
10%
usa troops enter syria

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

Market context
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bought Ṁ40 YES

@strutheo Aoba ?
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/aoba/news/295599/vaac-advisory-2026-32.html
Aoba Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: ERUPTION AT 20260220/1700Z LOW LEVEL ERUPTION.
RMK: SMALL PLUME VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAM,
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY MET CLOUD. TOPS BASED ON ECMWF MODEL.

last eruption 2024?
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/aoba-eruptions.html

@ElPepe Huh? In February?
Only on 7 in premier league this year

@ChristopherRandles

Should've added more context i didn't mean Tottenham I meant the San Antonio Spurs

bought Ṁ131 YES

@strutheo Claud Opus 4.6

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