MANIFOLD
What will be true of Manifold's next Pivot?
12
Ṁ175Ṁ333
2100
37%
Involves converting mana to charitable donations
36%
Involves any real-money (that's integral to it, not like buying mana)
28%
New model is very similar to sweepstakes
25%
Involves crypto
11%
It replaces mana
11%
New play-money currency
10%
Involves cashing out mana

Pivot is defined as any change that integrally changes how I would use Manifold. Here's some examples:

  • Offering decision markets only

  • Becoming a Metaculus-style tournament thing

  • Adding back sweepstakes

  • New currency

  • Adding a major charity program

  • Direct cashouts

I won't bet to maintain market integrity. Edge cases will be resolved by a poll. Resolves when the next pivot happens, or all resolve NO when Manifold shuts down

  • Update 2026-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The launch of MNX (a separate AI exchange platform) does not qualify as a pivot for this market, as it does not integrally change how the creator uses Manifold itself.

  • Update 2026-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market cannot resolve YES. It is a multiple choice (MC) market, which means it will resolve to one or more of the specific answer options listed, not to a simple YES outcome.

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bought Ṁ10 NO

@Chumchulum Pivot is defined as any change that integrally changes how I would use Manifold.

I don’t think it has any change on how he will use manifold. It’s a completely different thing

@Jack1 Correct.

@Chumchulum also, an mc market can't resolve yes

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