Update!

Given Gallups recent announcement to no longer track and publish approval ratings, I changing the criteria to be based on the NY Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/donald-trump-approval-rating-polls.html

Times also trends higher than Gallup so adjusting the target up 2 points.

Leaving the original description below for posterity:

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This market resolves to true if Trump's approval rating during his second term falls below the lowest of any President since Nixon.

GW Bush had the lowest at 25%, so this resolves to true if at any point in his second term his approval drops to 24% or below

Resolution will be based on this Gallup data https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

Currently his approval rating is 36, down from 47 at the beginning of this second term.

More context / historical highs and lows of recent Presidents:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_approval_rating

• Update 2026-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria has changed due to Gallup discontinuing presidential approval tracking:

  • Resolution will now be based on NYTimes polling data instead of Gallup

  • Target approval rating changed from 24% to 26%

  • Market resolves TRUE if Trump's approval rating falls to 26% or below at any point during his second term

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/donald-trump-approval-rating-polls.html