Will Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?

Ṁ1kṀ2.1k

2040

68%

chance

ALL

In August 2023, due to delays in the development of Starship, NASA officials expressed an openness to flying Artemis 3 without a crewed landing. In this case, the mission may become a crewed visit to the Lunar Gateway.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3

Resolves YES if Artemis III is flown and a lunar landing is planned to be attempted as part of the mission

Resolves NO if Artemis III is flown and a lunar landing is not planned to be attempted as part of the mission

Resolves N/A if Artemis III is not flown before 2040

Market context

Space

SpaceX

Rockets

Artemis 3 / Human Moon Landing

Moon Race

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predictedNO

https://spacenews.com/starship-lunar-lander-missions-to-require-nearly-20-launches-nasa-says/

Interesting question! I think Yes, I think they'd rather delay Artemis 3 (even longer) rather than fly without. But chances close to 60% seem right for now.

It's also not like SLS has such an amazing cadence that they'll run out of space by delaying a year.