Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if at least one shooting incident occurs in Sweden resulting in either a death or injury to any person(s) during the resolution period. A shooting is defined as an incident where a firearm is discharged intentionally and illegally, with either multiple independent witnesses or physical evidence (bullets, cartridges, etc.).

Resolution will be based on data from Swedish police confirmed shooting statistics or official reports from Brå (Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention). The market resolves NO if no such incidents occur during the specified timeframe.

Background

In 2024, there were 296 shootings in Sweden resulting in 44 deaths and 66 injuries. Sweden has experienced a rising number of shooting episodes related to criminal gangs, with violence usually concentrated in larger cities Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmö, though smaller towns have recently experienced shootings and bombings.

Sweden's gun homicide rate ranks very high relative to other European countries at approximately 4 deaths per million inhabitants per year, compared to a European average of 1.6 deaths per million. The increase in Sweden is primarily linked to an increase in gun violence.

Considerations

Gang violence has intensified since November 2024, with the prime minister noting a "new wave of violence" in January 2025; there were 27 attacks in December 2024 and 32 in January 2025 compared to 13 in November 2024. A mass shooting in February 2025 at an adult education campus in Örebro killed at least 11 people, marking the worst mass shooting in Swedish history.

This description was generated by AI.