Which major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030?
5
Ṁ250Ṁ1102030
14%
Google/Alphabet
21%
IBM
7%
Microsoft
7%
Amazon
7%
Intel
7%
Rigetti
8%
IonQ
8%
Alibaba
7%
Baidu
15%
Other
This market predicts which major technology company will achieve the most significant breakthrough in quantum computing by December 31, 2029. A "significant breakthrough" is defined as: 1. Development of a quantum computer with >1000 logical qubits, OR 2. First demonstration of quantum advantage for a commercially relevant problem, OR 3. Development of a quantum-resistant cryptography standard that becomes widely adopted. The breakthrough must be publicly announced and independently verified by at least two academic institutions.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
How many times will #QuantumComputing trend on X globally within the next 30 days?
Will Google announce a new quantum-related milestone within the next 60 days?
34% chance
From which countries will the 5 most performant quantum computer corporates in 2028 have originated?
Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?
Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?
17% chance
Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
35% chance
Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?
28% chance
Will Google announce a new quantum-related milestone within the next 60 days?
37% chance
Will a quantum computer with at least 1500 qubits be announced before the end of 2030?
91% chance
Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?
39% chance