MANIFOLD
Which of the Moon, Mars and Antarctica will be the first to reach a population of 100,000?
19
Ṁ1kṀ2.7k
2050
26%
the Moon
38%
Mars
36%
Antarctica

Resolves at the first of the Moon, Mars and Antarctica to reach a population of 100,000.

Emulated humans count, probably, if that comes up before humans go extinct I'll issue a ruling when we know what they look like.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@Tetraspace this should have been an old-style dependent multiple choice market

@duck_master correct

People are also trading

Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050?
28% chance
Will there be a permanent population in Antarctica before a semipermanent population on the moon?
62% chance
When will the total number of humans on the Moon and its orbit reach 100 for the first time?
Will there be >100 humans living on Mars in 2063?
46% chance
Who will be the first person on Mars?
Will there be >100 humans living on Mars in 2050?
27% chance
Conditional on humans settling mars by 2050, whose spaceships will send more of the first 100 settlers?
Will there be >100 humans living on the moon in 2063?
61% chance
Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030?
10% chance
What will be the first celestial body other than Earth, Moon and Mars to be visited by humans?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy