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MANIFOLD
Will I run a marathon in 2026?
14
Ṁ1kṀ2.1k
Dec 31
67%
chance

I have a goal this year to run a marathon. I am male, late 20s, 6’4”/193cm and 210 lb/95 kg. I have been a casual runner for several years and have completed several half-marathons, most recently in 2022, but have never run further than the half marathon distance. My 5k PR is 21:13; my HM PR is 1:38:40.

My plan is to roughly follow the Hal Higdon Novice 1 marathon training plan and run an event in late April.

To resolve YES, I must complete an activity of marathon distance (26.2 miles/42.2 km) or longer by the end of 2026. I should run for the majority of the activity; walking 26.2 miles would not count. Resolves NO if I fail to do so by the end of the year.

I will only buy YES shares in this market.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

Buying No to get everyone excited.

Are you signed up for a marathon?

@MachiNi My guess is training got interrupted, last update I was able to find was 30 January.

But either way, as long as it is a goal to do it during the year, it looks like all the physical capability is present. I'm not selling yet!

@MachiNi Nope, after a 13 mile long run I had a strain injury in my left knee, took multiple weeks off and have only been running intermittently since. The redemption plan is to try to build a better base over the summer and target a race in November

bought Ṁ50 YES

@RedzoneITG you have plenty of time to recover, build back up and train for a race. Plus, fall marathons are easier.

bought Ṁ50 YES

week 4 (1/12-18): total 20.7 miles, long run 9 miles

week 5 (1/19-25): total 23 miles, long run 10 miles

I will try to keep slightly increasing mileage next week; we’ll see how the cold wave here affects things

bought Ṁ50 YES

Progress update: first three weeks of training have passed successfully.

Week 1: total 16 miles, long run 6 miles

Week 2: total 19 miles, long run 7.5 miles

Week 3: total 15 miles, long run 5 miles

Goal for next week is ~20 mi total with a 9 mile long run

bought Ṁ50 YES

You are physically capable so it only comes down to whether you train a bit and then whether you get injured. You can do this.