The Spanish government is investigating an outbreak of African swine fever, and is considering a lab leak from a research center as a possible cause:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spain-investigating-whether-swine-fever-outbreak-was-caused-by-laboratory-leak-2025-12-05/
This market will resolve Yes if, before 2028, Spanish authorities conclude that this outbreak of African swine fever most likely came from a leak from a Spanish lab.
Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The lab leak must be from a Spanish lab for this market to resolve Yes. If the outbreak is determined to be caused by foreign actors (e.g., biowarfare from another country), this market will resolve No.
1,000The government investigation looks increasingly likely not to conclude there was a lab leak*, but there's still an ongoing police investigation, under judicial secrecy. What counts as "Spanish authorities" for this market - does that include police or prosecutors? If a relevant prosecution were brought, would a guilty finding before 2028 be needed for this market to resolve YES?
*MAPA issued a preliminary report about two weeks ago. English-language reporting has unfortunately been minimal. In summary, there were no matches with known strains. This has been interpreted as the local labs being in the clear. (I do not think this evidence definitively proves a natural origin or disproves a research origin, but that's not what this market has asked about.)
In Poland, there are allegations that Polish swine fever was caused by Russian sabotage:
https://bsky.app/profile/notesfrompoland.bsky.social/post/3m75vkgdea22v
If the Spanish outbreak proves to be Russian biowarfare, this market will resolve No -- the lab leak must be from a Spanish lab for this to resolve Yes.