MANIFOLD
When will Artemis II launch?
41
Ṁ1kṀ38k
Dec 31
May 22, 2026
1.2%
Before 2026-04-01
84%
Before 2026-06-01
95%
Before 2026-08-01
94%
Before 2026-10-01
96%
Before 2027-01-01

Resolves YES based on the date that the Artemis II SLS vehicle leaves the launchpad under its own thrust. Resolves based on Houston local time.

Market context
Space
SpaceX
Rockets
Artemis program
Artemis 2
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Nasa pushes it back to March. And no real action in the graph. Uninformative market

If it launches, what is the probability that all astronauts return to the surface of Earth alive?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Eliza /jks/will-artemis-2-return-to-earth-with

if there were a date, say "in 2026" then I would say no. It may fly, and something goes wrong, but what if it does not fly this year?

bought Ṁ10 NO

https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2027?r=SnVzc2lWaWxsZUhlaXNrYW5lbg

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