This market tracks PGM 4E production at the facility level.
Facility: Sibanye-Stillwater operations in Zimbabwe
Basket type: PGM 4E (contains platinum, palladium, rhodium, and other PGMs)
Coverage period: Trailing 12 months (TTM) ending 2026-12-31
Settlement delay: 2 months (observation date = March 1, 2027)
Baseline (2026): 130,000 ozt
Data source: Official company production disclosures and quarterly reports
Resolution Criteria
Resolve YES iff: Latest Delayed (2m) Trailing (12m) result for sibanye_mimosa_pgm_4e_ttm_ozt as of March 1, 2027 is ≥ 130,000 ozt.
If PGM 4E ≥ 130,000, resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
1,000Mimosa looks like a mature, steady Zimbabwean PGM operation already operating at a level where even a 20–25% sustained production hit versus recent performance would still clear 130k 4E oz over the TTM to end‑2026. The main risks are sustained power disruptions or a severe Zimbabwe macro/regulatory shock, but current guidance and recent H1 FY26 data both support a comfortably “YES” bias at today’s sub‑50% market price.