How many people will ICE/CBP kill in 2026?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ250Ṁ544

2027

9.4 people

expected

ALL

16%

2 - 3

19%

4 - 5

21%

6 - 8

15%

9 - 11

12 - 14

15 - 17

18 - 20

Above 20

This refers to people killed "in the street" not in detention centers.

Here is the current count as of 1/26/26: 2

1/7/26: Renee Good

1/24/26: Alex Jeffrey Pretti

Market context

Immigration

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Does this include people in holding facilities?

@LarsOsborne I am looking for an authoritative source. Your thoughts?

@MichaeldelaMaza my question is about intent.

I could interpret this as only applying to people intentionally killed by ice in the street or in pursuit. I could interpret this as the above and those intentionally killed in custody, or I could interpret it as all people who died while in custody or while interacting with ICE.