MANIFOLD
If Keir Starmer resigns or is pushed out, what happens next?
11
Ṁ100Ṁ276
2029
85%
New leader from within Labour as his successor, with no general election
65%
Labour voting intention goes to >25% on Politico Poll of Polls within 6 months
16%
General election within 6 months
10%
Labour voting intention drops to <10% on Politico Poll of Polls within 6 months

All markets on this question will resolve N/A if Keir Starmer does not resign or get pushed out.

Markets are open for additions from anyone and will resolve based on their titles.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@LukeShadwell do you mean with no general election, or do you mean with no leadership election?

@Fion Sorry, no general election ... really bad wording on my part.

When Blair stepped down years ago to be replaced by Brown who up to then had been chancellor of the exchequer, it created all sorts of controversy due to the lack of voting involved. Although I got the impression that a lot of it was conservatives attitude that "boo, the labour party sucks" and less of genuine anger about the head of state change.

@AlanTennant I think it is a real risk for Labour particularly because of the polling. If the polling gets any worse than it is (voting intention 16% in Jan, 19% today), they’re going to get a lot of grief for switching leaders without a GE imo. But then again it’s basically suicide with that polling so seems unlikely they’d call one.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy