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MANIFOLD
Who will be the top 10 Chess players at the end of 2026?
24
Ṁ2.1kṀ4.4k
Dec 31
95%
Magnus Carlsen
93%
Fabiano Caruana
91%
Hikaru Nakamura
77%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
73%
Javokhir Sindarov
68%
Vincent Keymer
62%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
60%
Arjun Erigaisi
56%
Anish Giri
45%
Wesley So
44%
Wei Yi
36%
Gukesh Dommaraju
36%
Alireza Firouzja
32%
Hans Moke Nieman
23%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
19%
Leinier Dominguez Perez
17%
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
17%
Richard Rapport
14%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
11%
Viswanathan Anand

Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on FIDE's monthly published "Top 100 Players" list for classical chess. The resolution will use the first official FIDE rating list published in 2027.

Each answer resolves YES if that player appears in the top 10 of the FIDE classical ratings at that time, and NO otherwise. Only active players (as per FIDE's definition) will be considered. Check the official FIDE ratings at https://ratings.fide.com

Background

FIDE governs international chess competition and publishes monthly rankings of the top 100 players based on classical time control ratings. The Elo rating system is used.

Considerations

Rankings fluctuate monthly based on classical tournament results. Players may take extended breaks from competition, affecting their rating trajectory. Sites like https://2700chess.com/ compute "live ratings" which are an indication of how players are performing in between official ratings lists.

Answers were seeded with top 20 at market creation. I will bet on this market.

Market context
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Added Javokhir Sindarov (currently #11 on the live ratings after an amazing performance at Tata Steel)