MANIFOLD
Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026?
14
Ṁ1kṀ1.4k
Dec 31
94%
Falcon Heavy
90%
Starship
83%
Zhuque 3
83%
LVM3
83%
Long March 12A
76%
Vikram 1
72%
Long March 5
66%
H3
66%
Nuri
66%
Tianlong 3
66%
Kairos
66%
Kinetica-2
66%
Long March 10A
66%
Agnibaan
66%
Soyuz 5
60%
Rocket Lab Neutron
60%
Isar Spectrum
50%
Zhuque 2
50%
RFA One
50%
Ceres-2

Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.

Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2026 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)

*Starship near-orbits don't count

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@JoshuaWilkes
https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/watch-russia-launches-meteorological-satellite-from-frozen-baikonur-launchpad-2867322-2026-02-12
The satellite separated eight minutes post-final burn, bolstering continuous Earth observation amid global climate scrutiny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwiBFPB0Vgs

Ariane 64
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV7mX4HGayg
reached orbit but not sure when payload deploy occurs.

@JoshuaWilkes This is set to close in only a few hours.

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