For them to be famous, they have to have a Wikipedia page with 1000+ words (body text only, not subtitles, tables, captions, etc.) or a social media account with 1m+ followers/subscribers.
It has to be proven that the person is who they say they are. Vandalizing a Wikipedia page to increase a page's word count or using bots to increase a user's follower count is invalid.
The bet must occur before March 1, UTC.
Update 2026-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Wikipedia pages, the bibliography section does not count as part of the main text when calculating the 1000+ word requirement.
Update 2026-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The famous person themselves must make the bet - they cannot authorize someone else to bet on their account on their behalf.
1,000People are also trading
@CrypticQccZ I think you know more than you let on. Alea iacta est!
@Quroe Well, here we are turning toward the witching hour... I was expecting action, but "not like this"...
@AlanTennant with the graph trending NO, now... there's more upside to a delayed reveal, no? I mean, yes? 😆
@findleyturbo /realDonaldTrump/am-i-screwed-read-desc
Edit: Granted, an inconsistency in this story was noted here.
@ItsMe Say this market resolves NO, then a famous person reveals after resolution that they bet on this market. Does this market re-resolve to YES?
@draaglom well, the other large YES holders are not exactly confidence inspiring, but you putting up limit orders at 51% makes me concerned
Can a account related to a famous person confirm that they bet on this market?
@ItsMe - would you allow confidential confirmation of the account holder’s identity to just you? Does the famous person need to be “publically out” on Manifold?
In light of /ItsMe/will-i-get-it-together existing, would a mod be willing to answer this and other pending clarifying questions if itsme doesn't clarify in the next 48 hours?