Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030? | Manifold

Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?

4

Ṁ90Ṁ67

2030

71%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolve to YES if by Jan. 1, 2030, any journal with the Science or Nature family of journals announces or implements a policy in which LLMs (or another type of AI model) are used to provide peer-review feedback to authors. The LLM must provide feedback to >50% of reviewed papers (though human peer-review could still happen alongside the LLM).

Market context

Artificial Intelligence

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

Comment hidden

People are also trading

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

-3% 1d64% chance

Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

Will an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Related questions

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

Will an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy