AI: Valuation above $1T by 2030

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ336

2030

74%

chance

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Incl. private

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Will OpenAI be valued above $1 trillion before 2030?

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AI: Valuation above $1T by 2040

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AI: >1% of Gdp (by 2030)

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AI: >1% of Gdp (by 2028)

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AI: >10% of Gdp (by 2050)

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Inflation adjusted

predictedNO

One company (or pro forma division of one company eg DeepMind spin-off value)

@Gigacasting evaluated by market cap in 2030 or 2022 nominal dollars as of this market's creation?

To be clear, is the criteria a single company or the market as a whole? Got some shares to sell if the latter!

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Will OpenAI be valued above $1 trillion before 2030?

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AI: Valuation above $1T by 2040

86% chance

AI: >1% of Gdp (by 2030)

97% chance

AI: >1% of Gdp (by 2028)

79% chance

AI: >1% of Gdp (by 2050)

95% chance

AI: >4% of Gdp (by 2030)

55% chance

AI: >1% of US Stock Market (2030)

89% chance

AI: >3% of Gdp (by 2050)

85% chance

AI: >10% of Gdp (by 2050)

75% chance

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