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MANIFOLD
Will ceasefire between US and Iran hold the two weeks announced by Trump ?
36
Ṁ100Ṁ1k
Apr 22
26%
chance
6

If either side (US/Iran) officially stop the ceasefire it's a NO
If we get to the two weeks and get an extension of the ceasefire between (US/Iran), or a peace deal it's a YES

If Israel continue it's offensive on Lebanon I will not consider it as an end to the ceasefire by itself.

If hostilities between Iran and Israel start over but the ceasefire continue between US and Iran, it's a YES

Market context
Iran
Middle East
Wars
Israel-Iran Conflict
Iranian Politics
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opened a Ṁ10 YES at 25% order

Not the most intuitive set of terms but I'll bite... this is a YES for hope 🤣

Define 'hold'?

Will both sides (US/Iran) claim it is still a thing? Probably a buy.

Will all sides (including proxies) actually stop firing? Sell to zero...

@PaulBenjamin I have updated the description, hopes it help

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@PaulBenjamin Is this more what you are looking for?

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