
Which company will create AGI first?
80
Ṁ2kṀ4.7k2036
33%
Anthropic
20%
DeepMind
13%
OpenAI
10%
US Government
5%
Communist Party of China
5%
people not employed by a company
4%
xAI
4%
N/A
4%
If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will AI create the first AGI?
43% chance
By when will we have AGI?
Will China get AGI first?
23% chance
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
67% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
When will AGI be developed and released to the public?
Will we get AGI before 2027?
5% chance
Sort by:
@FranklinBaldo I was mostly intending to expensively signal "AGI will not be created" but if there's no value in my underlying then I'll get out :P
People are also trading
Related questions
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will AI create the first AGI?
43% chance
By when will we have AGI?
Will China get AGI first?
23% chance
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
67% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
When will AGI be developed and released to the public?
Will we get AGI before 2027?
5% chance


