Which company will create AGI first?
73
Ṁ1.9kṀ4.4k2036
39%
DeepMind
14%
OpenAI
11%
Anthropic
10%
xAI
10%
US Government
5%
Communist Party of China
5%
people not employed by a company
2%
1.3%
Safe Superintelligence (SSI)
1.2%
DeepSeek
If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will we get AGI before 2030?
31% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
13% chance
Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Will AI create the first AGI?
42% chance
Will China get AGI first?
28% chance
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Sort by:
@FranklinBaldo I was mostly intending to expensively signal "AGI will not be created" but if there's no value in my underlying then I'll get out :P
People are also trading
Related questions
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will we get AGI before 2030?
31% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
13% chance
Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Will AI create the first AGI?
42% chance
Will China get AGI first?
28% chance
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?