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Will the economy in 2048 be at least six times the size it is today?
10
Ṁ150Ṁ248
2050
38%
chance

"The economy" is defined as the gross product of all human-initiated activities throughout the universe (if a human builds an AI that wipes out all humans but also builds a replicator ship to Proxima B and it builds stuff there, I'd count its activities on that planet as human-initiated).

"Size" means value, measured in some reasonable way.

Resolves in 2050 to allow some time for fact-finding

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Whatever measure you use, that would require sustained growth at 7.5% per year for the full 15 years. The highest global GDP growth rate (post WW2) was 6.6% in 1964 and that rate has been on a downwards trend since then. It would take something quite phenomenal to achieve this level of growth

@MattHutton Exactly correct. A large number of users here have short AI timelines

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