MANIFOLD
Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
58
Ṁ1kṀ18k
2029
58%
Democrats
41%
Republicans
0.6%
Other

Resolves YES for “Democrats” if the winner of the 2028 presidential election is also the 2028 democratic party nominee for president.

Resolves YES for “Republicans” if the winner of the 2028 presidential election is also the 2028 republican party nominee for president.

Resolves YES for “Other” in any other scenario.

  • Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:

    • No Election: If no presidential election takes place in 2028, the market will resolve as Other.

    • Outcome Determination: In cases where the winner is disputed or unclear, the resolution will be based on the candidate who is inaugurated at the market's end date.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
Republican Party
Democratic Party
2028 US presidential election
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filled a Ṁ20 YES at 11% order

no 2028 election = "other"?
no winner declared in 2028/ dispute over winner = "other"?

@greenglass

No election = Other

Otherwise determined by whoever inaugurates, hence end date.

Arb: https://manifold.markets/market/which-political-party-wins-the-us-p-nUsCQcZ6Lc

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