Resolves YES if Western Yilgarn's cobalt discoveries at the Ida Holmes Junction project in Western Australia contribute at least 1% to the global cobalt supply by March 22, 2026. The resolution will be based on official production reports from Western Yilgarn and global supply data from the USGS or equivalent authoritative sources. This threshold matters because new high-grade cobalt discoveries could alter supply dynamics in the critical minerals market, especially given the strategic importance of cobalt in various industries. The current global mine production is estimated at 310,000 tonnes for 2025, and Western Yilgarn's impact would need to be at least 3,100 tonnes to meet the threshold.
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1,000The Ida Holmes cobalt results look geologically interesting but they are exploration-stage only; they will not be producing material cobalt, let alone 1% of global output, within weeks. This market is essentially a bet on a definitional or resolution error rather than on real-world supply impact.