MANIFOLD
Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
28
αΉ€1kαΉ€34k
Dec 31
98.6%
chance

I just learned that she doesn't. I thought that was crazy.

To resolve YES, the Wikipedia page must exist for at least 95% of the month of December. (I want this market to be robust to Wikipedia vandalism.)

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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edit: nvm people were already on it

sold αΉ€440 YES

Special thanks to @spiderduckpig for their significant expansion of the article!

Probably one of the main reasons it survived the AfD

Vandalism events that take the page temporarily = still YES?

@jgyou I thought of this! As specified in the description, vandalism would only count if it caused the page to be down for over 5% of December.

boughtαΉ€10,000YES

@EvanDaniel Thanks!

opened a αΉ€4 NO at 98% order

Who has the spare cash and wants to buy my stake in this market at 98%? Correct price should be very close to 100% now that the article has passed an AfD nomination with unanimous votes.

@xjp Oops on the double comment, I didn't realize "reposting" also made a comment and didn't just post to the Explore feed

After surviving an AfD nomination with unanimous votes, this should be near 100%. Re-nominations are extremely rare and coverage of the subject will only increase.

I voted keep.

There's a new comment linking back to this market. Would you mind posting a clarification that Manifold is a play-money market with no profit incentive to manipulate the AfD outcome?

@xjp A lot more mana could be earned now by manipulating toward NO…

@xjp I think it's safer not to respond unless it receives more attention. I really don't want to get into a conflict of interest debate with editors, because I don't know whether people would see it in a way favorable to manifold.

@Qoiuoiuoiu Prediction markets are entering popular consciousness now, but most people are only familiar with the real money ones that are plagued with manipulation and insider trading scandals. I would argue it's more dangerous to let people assume Manifold is like that, but I see your point too

@xjp I agree, but seems like no one really noticed it. The only reply to the comment so far is one in favor of disregarding the connection.

Made the predictle!

bought αΉ€1,000 YES

7 keeps, 0 deletes. Seems almost certain it will pass.

bought αΉ€50 NO

@traders

Article has been nominated for deletion. I think there's a good bet that it survives, but it's not certain.

bought αΉ€150 YES

So far so good, we have 3 keeps, 1 week keep, and 0 deletes so far

boughtαΉ€150YES

@spiderduckpig Thanks for taking initiative to add some great content! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amanda_Askell looks pretty good to me now.

On the other hand, when I look at the talk page, the last comment still indicates it’s being relegated to a draft, so idk.

bought αΉ€50 YES

@Conflux Two people have just chimed in in support of keeping it as an article, so we might actually do this!

reposted

this is the reason i made my first wikipedia article

Houston, we may have a problem.

Um... My argument was going to be that she was on the TIME list but I think I might need something a bit more solid. I'll look at WP: Notability, but not sure I know who she is well enough to make a good argument.

bought αΉ€100 NO

@Qoiuoiuoiu Most recently, she was one of two main authors of Claude’s Constitution, a foundational document for its training. As the main philosopher at Anthropic in charge of Claude, she has a significant influence over its personality, and therefore a lot of power β€” I saw her referred to on twitter once as the most powerful woman in the world, though it was probably a joke. Still, I think someone shaping the values of one of the leading AIs is important enough to get a wiki page.

Joe Carlsmith was the other main author. He doesn’t have a page rn. Part of me thinks that’s a problem, but I think he has a lot less news coverage than Askell.

@Conflux Thanks, I've noted that. If anyone knows any good sources for her, I think that would help - good, outside reporting really helps for notability standards.

@traders

it don't look good

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