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If China attacks Taiwan, will they fight US forces within a month?
52
Ṁ1kṀ6.8k
2030
47%
chance

This market resolves YES if this market resolves YES, and within a month from that time, a Chinese military unit has either:

  • Killed a deployed member of the US military.

  • Fired on a US military vehicle or base.

This market resolves NO if this doesn't happen within a month of the resolution of the previously mentioned market. If that market resolves NO or N/A, this market resolves N/A.

Market context
World
China
China Taiwan potential conflict
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bought Ṁ10 YES

If China attacks Taiwan without a pre-emptive strike on US assets in the Pacific, they are taking a massive risk hoping the US won't intervene.

bought Ṁ25 YES

If China decides to attack Taiwan, it would make a lot of sense to attack the US and Japan as well simultaneously.

I think the invasion will start with attacks on the US Navy, perhaps from ships that appear to be civilian.

@BTE Exactly.

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Partially inspired by this blog post.

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