Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?
19
Ṁ1kṀ13k2030
9%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
HOC is HigherOrderCO, see https://higherorderco.com. Context:
Resolution criteria:
If HOC builds the first AGI as determined a panel of 3 manifold mods without a position on this market, the market resolves YES. Resolves NO otherwise.
The market close date will be extended until an AGI is achieved.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Conditional on no one else achieving AGI first, will HOC build an AGI by September 8 2028?
People are also trading
Related questions
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?
59% chance
when will OpenAI have announced they have achieved AGI?
Will AI create the first AGI?
42% chance
Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
31% chance
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
By when will we have AGI?
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance