MANIFOLD
When will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married?
20
Ṁ1.1kṀ6.6k
Jul 1
5%
Before March 2026
11%
Before April 2026
17%
Before May 2026
23%
Before June 2026
82%
Before July 2026

  • Update 2025-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - "Before [Month]" means the marriage must occur prior to the first day of that month.

Market context
Taylor Swift
Music Artists
Travis Kelce
Marriage
Kansas City Chiefs
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bought Ṁ614 NO

@Bayesian 4 can resolve?

bought Ṁ10 NO

To clarify - does “before” imply before the first day of that month?

@RebeccaLively Yeah

in general ‘month’ is a range not a point in time, and ‘before range’ means before the range starts. A range is (time0, time1) with time0 being the time the range starts and time1 being the time the range ends. ‘In time’ is a type error, ‘in range’ means after time0 and before time1. ‘By time’ is before time, ‘by range’ is linguistically ambiguous. More at https://manifold.markets/post/frequent-market-terms-recommended-d?r=QmF5ZXNpYW4

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Bayesian "before september 2025" and "before october 2025" can resolve NO

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