MANIFOLD
OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date
18
Ṁ1.7kṀ7.2k
Dec 31
3%
Before March 2026
13%
Before April 2026
18%
Before May 2026
25%
Before June 2026
31%
Before July 2026
37%
Before August 2026
41%
Before September 2026
44%
Before October 2026
49%
Before November 2026
54%
Before December 2026
58%
Before 2027

This market refers to OpenAI's next open-weight model release, regardless of what it is ultimately named. Minor naming changes from the working name 'GPT-OSS' will count.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

GPT 5.4 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Llama 5 (Meta) release date

V4 (DeepSeek) release date

R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date

GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date

M3 (Minimax) release date

Mistral 4 (Mistral) release date

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date (this market)

Veo 4 (Google) release date

New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date

'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date

Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date

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