This market will resolve to the first 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, of Gemini 3 Pro General Access (GA).
50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for the technical definition. Claude 3.7 Sonnet, released in February 2025, was the leading model with a 50% horizon of 59 minutes.
Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
See also:
/Bayesian/gpt-52-pro-metr-time-horizon
/Bayesian/claude-sonnet-46s-metr-50-time-hori
/Bayesian/claude-sonnet-5-metr-50-time-horizo
/Bayesian/claude-opus-5-metr-50-time-horizon
/Bayesian/grok-420s-metr-50-time-horizon
/Bayesian/grok-5s-50-time-horizon-per-metr
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@jim some tips:
doubling times are already at 3 months or less
they're getting shorter fast (note, shorter. Not longer)
google is a frontier lab
we were already a 6:34 time horizon in December last year
About 8.2 is the expected time-horizon assuming GDM is ~tied with OA and doubling time is 3 months
GDM might be ahead (greater velocity theory) or tied (all labs are equal theory (strong interpretiation of metr trends)) or a bit behind (OA dominance continuation theory) so let's call that a wash and assume equality with some decent variance
also it's not releasing today probably, maybe at the end of the moneth, so something like 13 hours is reasonable,
also, doubling times are probably less-than 3 months 🙏