When will Ukraine join the EU? | Manifold

When will Ukraine join the EU?

45

Ṁ1kṀ6.5k

2030

0.6%

2023

1%

2024

1%

2025

1.9%

2026

6%

2027

4%

2028

22%

2029

64%

2030 or later or never

Market context

Ukraine-Russia war

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@Base resolve 2023, 24, and 25?

@GazDownright I'm not the market creator.

@BrunoParga something weird with the tagging there. Thanks for the heads up

"2030 or later or never" is one hell of a bucket. When prompted about the actual steps required for accession, the Metaculus community gives only a 6% chance of it happening before 2030.

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Related questions

Will Ukraine be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?

Will the next country to join the European Union be Ukraine?

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Ukraine joins EU before 2029?

Will Ukraine be a member state of the EU at EOY 2029?

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When will Kosovo join the EU?

If Ukraine officially gives Luhansk to Russia, will Ukraine be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?

Will Ukraine join NATO before the end of 2029?

Will Ukraine adopt the euro before 2030?

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