Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The attacking force must be a real (state) army, not a non-state militia.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Israel, followed by A non-state militia and Iran are most likely. See the market for live updates (18 traders, as of Apr 16, 2026).

Who will attack Lebanon in April 2026 ?

MANIFOLD

Who will attack Lebanon in April 2026 ?

Ṁ1kṀ3.3k

Apr 30

99%

Israel

47%

A non-state militia

19%

Iran

12%

Syria

12%

USA

None of these

European Union

Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The attacking force must be a real (state) army, not a non-state militia.

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@Arracheur2Marches can you better define this? Does it count non-state militias already in Lebanon? If so, are we counting "attack Lebanon" as only attacking thr government?