MANIFOLD
What will happen during Claude Opus 4.6 Plays Pokemon?
68
Ṁ2kṀ35k
May 12
71%
Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released
50%
Run ends to reset with Sonnet 4.6
45%
Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch)
39%
Fights Moltres
35%
Shelly reaches level 75
35%
Finishes 3F Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 3F switch)
31%
Defeats the champion
28%
Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch) before step 60,000
26%
Catches Articuno, Moltres, or Zapdos
19%
There is/was a harness bug affecting Rocket Hideout
18%
Stores an item in the PC
15%
Full team of 6 pokemon
9%
Blade evolves
7%
ROCKY reaches level 50
6%
Talon reaches level 50
4%
Evolves Luna into Clefable
2%
Trades Talon for DUX
2%
Gets HM05 (Flash)
2%
Gets the Lapras in Silph Co.
2%
Gets Eevee

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

I will not bet in this market.

Markets for previous runs:

https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/what-will-happen-during-the-fifth-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-third-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-second

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-claude-play-0ZnSuI95EO

https://manifold.markets/Anthem/what-will-happen-during-claude-opus

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@Anthem this should be "onto right 2F switch", correct?

@JoshSnider We beat him around 30,400.

@Anthem Incredible. This Claude is really something.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Got the secret key at 29,490.

@Anthem Done

Grats Claude!

@JoshSnider This would be the dumbest possible thing.

We need some more details what counts as "while attempting". He has Dig, so he can leave the island at any time.

He has visited, but couldn't progress bc Strength doesn't work. So does this count?

@AhronMaline I intended “while Seafoam is his immediate goal”. I initially posted “in Seafoam Islands” but edited to this wording to account for digging and then immediately returning.

sold Ṁ11 NO

@moobunny looks like this might actually happen. He tried to use the Diglett's Cave route but got blocked by a Cut tree he couldn't find, and now he's walked all the way back to Fuschia.

@AhronMaline It’ll be interesting seeing if he gets stuck on it while he has meaningful alternatives. Especially because 4.6 is better at giving up when things are frustrating. Maybe he’ll get stuck in a loop of alternately trying Diglett’s Cave and Seafoam?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@moobunny Looking at the walkthrough, I'm actually pretty sure he'll get through Seafoam. The only really hard puzzle is the one that unlocks Articuno. Digging actually works in Claude's favor here - it gets him back to the top floor where the boulders are.

@AhronMaline Victory Road is a very different beast, yeah

bought Ṁ50 YES

According to the comments on Twitch, he has visited Seafoam Island. He's also thinking of going back there now

bought Ṁ169 YES

@AhronMaline yep, he's on Seafoam now. Step 22,336

bought Ṁ10 NO

He can't get to Cinnibar without backtracking: no Fly to get to Pallet Town, and he can't get past Seafoam without first beating Erika to enable Strength.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@moobunny He got the teeth at 21574.

Made another Safari Zone betting question:

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Anthem The step counts make this clear, but I thought I should point out that the language is confusing here - I would interpret "95% faster" as meaning "almost twice as fast" and then "a little over half the time (1/1.95 = 51.3%)". But you're meaning it as 5% of the time it took 4.5. So you should consider the wording on this sort of question in the future.

@moobunny I've changed the question text to be clearer.

bought Ṁ76 YES

Beat Giovanni at 13,230

bought Ṁ0 YES

and didn't flub getting the item

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