Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
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Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.
If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.
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@AndrewG when do you decide to resolve? If a republican changes to caucus with dems on 30 November will that mean democrats win if it takes them from 50 to 51
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