How many Successful Starship Splashdowns before successful Starship Catch?
6
Ṁ1kṀ1.2k2027
4%
4-5
26%
6-7
28%
8-9
26%
10-11
8%
12-13
8%
Im counting flights 4, 5, 6, and 10 as successful splashdowns.
In this instance splashdowns after orbital launches would also count as splashdowns.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
What will happen successfully during Starship flight 12?
Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
89% chance
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
4% chance
Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
67% chance
When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
10/25/26
Will SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
1% chance
Which Starship will be the first to be caught?
Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
53% chance
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?