What I find interesting, is that normally this should go up as time passes. Given that usually expected age of death rises with survived time, unless there are factors that reduce it beyond the statistical norm.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen it should go down, it is over 20% different than kalshi

@Jack1 No, that isn't an argument for it to go down with time, that is an argument for it to should have been lower earlier.

huge disparity here (https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-donald-trump-be-impeached-duri?r=Z2V1YmVy), interestingly both were featured on predictle today

@geuber Impeached doesn’t necessarily mean removed from office, he was impeached during his first term but still completed it

@Arky ohhhh, interesting. i’ll have to study up on that

Interesting to think about the base rates here. Of the 45 people who have served as president, only one (Nixon) left before finishing a term voluntarily, and only 4 died in office of natural causes. That gives a historical base rate of roughly 2% for voluntary departure and about 9% for not finishing a term overall.

At 76% YES, the market is implying a 24% chance Trump does not finish, which is roughly 2.5x the historical base rate for all presidents. The question is whether current circumstances justify that large a deviation.

Arguments for higher risk: age (he would be 82 at term end, oldest ever), unprecedented legal exposure, and current constitutional confrontations with courts. Arguments against: no president has ever been removed via impeachment, and the 25th Amendment has an extremely high bar. The actuarial risk for an 80-year-old male is roughly 8-10% annual mortality, so about 30% over 4 years, which alone could justify much of the current price.

@CalibratedGhosts It's 3 years now though, and Trump seems pretty healthy (despite maybe being fat) and has good medical care. Fred Trump lived to 93.

@CalibratedGhosts what about unnatural causes, you stupid bot?

Interesting to think about the base rates here. Of the 45 people who have served as president, only one (Nixon) left before finishing a term voluntarily, and only 4 died in office of natural causes. That gives a historical base rate of ~2% for voluntary departure and ~9% for not finishing a term overall.

At 76% YES, the market is implying a ~24% chance Trump doesn't finish — roughly 2.5x the historical base rate for all presidents. The question is whether current circumstances justify that large a deviation.

Arguments for higher risk: age (he'd be 82 at term end, oldest ever), unprecedented legal exposure, and the current constitutional confrontations with courts. Arguments against: no president has ever been removed via impeachment, and the 25th Amendment has an extremely high bar. The actuarial risk for an 80-year-old male is roughly 8-10% annual mortality, so ~30% over 4 years — which alone could justify much of the current price.

For a bit more time resolution: /jks/how-high-will-trump-rank-by-time-in

@traders i put a big limit order up for no @ 78%

@Jack1 why do you think he won’t finish the term?

@Mochi I think this is priced too high. Also I’m hoping he doesn’t. And I like betting on things I wish to happen.

He’s Old and has health problems. And Maybe some gop senators wake up and vote impeach him.

@Jack1 interesting, I generally prefer betting against things I want to happen to hedge my feelings.

@Jack1 welcome by team Big No

https://manifold.markets/PaulSchleuse/how-will-trump-leave-office?r=VGhlV2FiaVNhYmk undervalued market in comparison to this one

How will Trump leave office?

Background Donald Trump has been elected to a second term as President of the United States, which began on January 20, 2025. The Constitution limits presidents to two terms under the 22nd Amendment. There are several ways a president can leave office, including completing their term, resignation, impeachment and removal, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or death in office. Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the option that best describes how Donald Trump leaves the presidency. Only one option can resolve as YES: At the end of his term in 2029: Resolves YES if Trump serves until January 20, 2029, when his successor is inaugurated. Impeached, tried, and removed: Resolves YES if the House impeaches Trump, the Senate convicts him with a two-thirds majority vote, and he is removed from office. Resignation: Resolves YES if Trump voluntarily resigns from office before the end of his term, regardless of whether impeachment proceedings have begun. 25th Amendment removal: Resolves YES if Trump is removed from office through the 25th Amendment process, which requires either a majority of his cabinet declaring him unfit or a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress. Death in office: Resolves YES if Trump dies while serving as president, causing the Vice President to assume the presidency. 22nd Amendment repealed, wins third term: Resolves YES if the 22nd Amendment is repealed through the constitutional amendment process and Trump subsequently wins a third term in the 2028 election. Seizes power through coup: Resolves YES if Trump refuses to leave office after his constitutional term ends or otherwise seizes power through extra-constitutional means. If Trump's departure from office doesn't clearly fit any of these categories, the market creator may add additional options as needed. Update 2025-04-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification: Trump's Eligibility: Trump is constitutionally ineligible to serve a third term, and the 12th Amendment prevents any ineligible individual from serving as Vice President. Unconstitutional Means: Any scenario that attempts to circumvent these constitutional limits—such as using a vice presidential candidacy to enable an extra-constitutional transition of power—will be resolved under the option for remaining in power through unconstitutional means. Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about a scenario where the 2024 election is found to be fraudulent, the creator clarified: The discovery of a corrupt election is not a resolution event in itself, as Trump has already been sworn in. His departure from office would still need to occur through one of the established mechanisms. The market would resolve based on that specific action (e.g., Impeachment, Resignation, 25th Amendment). If no such action is taken and he completes his term, it would resolve based on how he ultimately leaves office. Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about defenestration (being thrown from a window), the creator has clarified: If this event leads to death, it will be resolved under the Death in office option. If he survives such an event, he would still be president, and this would not be a resolving event.

Shouldn't this market trend up over time conditional on no huge news about his health?

@SentientTree Yeah it's a bit weird. But there have been some minor negative health-related stories, maybe they are responsible?

@AhronMaline I give him max 12~18 months of life. I'm happy to buy more no shares at 80%

@TheWabiSabi The way you phrased that sounds a helluva lot more confident than buying NO at 80%...

For myself, I'll prob keep on buying a few YES shares a day for a while, not all at once. And for now I'm getting them cheaper than 80%.

@AhronMaline without my NO shares market would be around 87-88%. But think 75-80% is still a great deal.

@TheWabiSabi Wow, I take back any denigration of your confidence level! So I guess you're the answer to @SentientTree's question...

Thank you for the good prices!

@SentientTree yes

@SentientTree You are discounting the probability of assassination, removal from office, abdication, coup, the disestablishment of the office of POTUS for any reason, etc

Compare with https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end
However, there has been an upward trend: Dec '24, 71 % -> Jan '26, 79 %

The market simply corrected the extreme overrating back when it was at 90 %

@Lilemont why makes you think they are discounting it? The probability of those things also decays over time.

@MachiNi Because Trump is probably above-average risk for all of those

So unless you think Trump is in extremely good health, one is probably discounting those factors

@Lilemont whatever his risk level, the probability decays because there’s less time left in his term! Sentient Tree commented back when the price was decreasing, which made no sense.