Will a major new armed conflict break out in the Horn of Africa — involving any combination of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, or Somalia — before January 1, 2028?”

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if there is a sustained armed conflict between the national armed forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea at any point between the market's creation and 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

"Sustained armed conflict" is defined as an ongoing engagement involving significant, coordinated military operations between the state forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea, lasting for at least seven consecutive days or involving more than 100 combat-related fatalities.

Resolution will be based on credible, consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official statements from international monitoring bodies (e.g., the United Nations or African Union). Minor border skirmishes, isolated incidents, or rhetoric do not constitute a sustained armed conflict for the purpose of this market.

Background

Ethiopia and Eritrea share a long, complex history of border disputes, most notably the border war from 1998 to 2000. While a peace agreement was signed in 2018, tensions have remained high, particularly following the Tigray War, during which Eritrean forces were widely reported to have supported the Ethiopian federal government. The status of border areas and the shifting alliances within the Horn of Africa remain significant points of geopolitical instability.

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