Will Texas elect a Democratic Senator in 2026, and will they elect at least 14 Democratic Representatives?
7
Ṁ1kṀ2.1kNov 3
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
16%
Dem Senator, >= 14 Dem Reps
17%
Dem Senator, < 14 Dem Reps
17%
Non-Dem Senator, >= 14 Dem Reps
51%
Non-Dem Senator, < 14 Dem Reps
Resolves based on these underlying markets:
Threshold conversion: Texas has 38 House seats. "At least 14 Democratic Representatives" is equivalent to "at most 24 Republican Representatives" in the underlying market.
Outcome Senate market Reps market (R version) Dem Senator, >= 14 Dem Reps YES 0-8 through 24 Dem Senator, < 14 Dem Reps YES 25 through 34-38 Non-Dem Senator, >= 14 Dem Reps NO 0-8 through 24 Non-Dem Senator, < 14 Dem Reps NO 25 through 34-38
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
31% chance
Who Will win the 2026 Texas Senate Seat Democratic Primary?
Who will win the 2026 Senate Election in Texas?
Will a runoff be needed in the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary?
Which party will win the 2026 Texas Senate race?
Who Will Win The Democratic Nomination For The 2026 Texas Senate Election
Who will win the 2026 Democratic primary for Texas's 18th congressional district?
Will Texas elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in any election through 2026?
36% chance
Will Ohio elect a Democratic Senator in 2026, and will they elect at least 4 Democratic Representatives?
How many Republican Representatives will Texas elect in 2026?