Resolves YES if the Ninth Circuit or Supreme Court overturns or stays Judge Rita Lin's March 26 preliminary injunction blocking the Pentagon's supply chain risk designation of Anthropic. Resolves NO if the injunction remains in effect through September 30, 2026.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (3 traders, as of Apr 4, 2026).

Will the Trump administration successfully overturn the Anthropic injunction on appeal by September 30, 2026?

Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?

-9% 1d57% chance

Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon supply-chain designation by June 2026?

70% chance

Will Anthropic's lawsuit against the Pentagon be settled out of court before August 1, 2026?

34% chance

Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

26% chance

Will the Trump administration defy any SCOTUS ruling before the end of 2028?

71% chance

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

14% chance

Will the Supreme Court strike down the FTC’s attempt to ban noncompete agreements before the end of 2026?

30% chance

Will the Supreme Court overrule Humphrey's Executor by August 1, 2026?

89% chance

Will Anthropic go bankrupt or be dissolved as a result of a copyright case by the end of 2027?

2% chance

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

23% chance