Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?
26
Ṁ1kṀ4.1kDec 31
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the People’s Republic of China launch an official military operation against Taiwan before December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
25% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
30% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
6% chance
[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
14% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
16% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
13% chance
Will China also kidnap the president of Taiwan in 2026?
4% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
25% chance
Will china invade taiwan before 14 Jan 2026?
1% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
38% chance